Get ready for a sharp drop in pork production next year, the USDA warns, which expects a 10% decline in 2020. Pork production will drop to its lowest level since 2007.

Export growth is projected to depend on increased demand from countries affected by ASF. However, this is not enough to offset the expected decline in production in China, Vietnam and the Philippines.

According to forecasts, pork production in China will decline by a quarter in 2020 to 34.8 million tons. In August of this year, the Chinese pig population was almost 40% less than a year earlier.

Herds of sows also recorded a similar drop, which could limit the ability of producers to replenish stocks despite high prices. The reduction in domestic production will increase dependence on imports, so it is expected that imports will reach 3.5 million tons next year.

In 2020, pork consumption in China is expected to decline by more than 20%. Consumers initially abandoned pork due to disease problems, despite the fact that ASF does not pose a risk to human health. However, in recent years, it is precisely higher prices that are increasingly seen as a barrier to purchase.

EU exports are also expected to benefit from high demand in Asia. However, a drop in domestic consumption and a reduction in the number of pigs is likely to limit production growth.

Thus, it is expected that next year production in the EU will be only slightly increased, comments Felicity Rusk, an AHDB analyst.